![[img]](/images/sml_cmi_logo.png){kind=logo}
Where are all the people? (R)
Readers’ comments
Your calculations are on the mark.
The Hebrew word for ‘city’ (ir), does not mean city in our modern sense but indicated a walled settlement. This is explained in reference to Cain building a ‘city’ in the Creation Answers Book chapter on Cain’s wife.
What about the chronology? You have cited an Ussher-type time-frame. Ussher actually had it at 105 years after the Flood. This short time-frame for Babel seems to depend on the assumption that it happened at the birth of Peleg (his name means ‘division’ and the ‘earth was divided’), but these are not necessarily connected, as explained by Ruth Beechick, a modern chronologist). Floyd Jones, another modern chronologist and author of The Chronology of the Old Testament (available from the CMI store), puts the time frame as 340 years after the Flood, at the death of Peleg, rather than his birth (this means that the total time since creation to now is the same as Ussher).
Of course 340 years would be plenty of time to get lots of people (many millions). The time available therefore seems to be between 105 and 340 years without affecting the overall chronology (since the Bible does not actually give the date of Babel). The population considerations you mention would add to the weight of evidence that a longer time-frame makes more sense.
A. K., United States, 10 April 2012
How do you explain the many different races on Earth? How could they have evolved so quickly, in 4500 years? Were Noah's three sons and their wives mixed marriages?
Please see: How did all the different 'races' arise (from Noah's family)? this is from the Creation Answers Book, which I strongly recommend for answers to all sorts of questions like this.
Rob H., South Africa, 3 May 2012
Great article Don. Here's a question. Do evolutionists ever ask themselves these questions? How do they rationalise our population numbers?
Thanks Rob. I wrote in the article, "Those who adhere to the evolutionary story argue that disease, famine and war kept the numbers almost constant for most of this period, which means that mankind was on the brink of extinction for most of this supposed history." But this 'out' just does not wash. For one thing, "Even if the population were a million, the low reproductive rate would not be sufficient to eliminate harmful mutations. The mutational load alone would have ensured extinction" (footnote 10). The work of Dr John Sanford underlines the problem: Plant geneticist: "Darwinian evolution is impossible". Here is an in-depth review: From ape to man via genetic meltdown: a theory in crisis
Viktor H., Sweden, 31 May 2012
I have a question that I hope receives a serious answer:
I'm sure there cannot be an article on creation.com that refutes the effects of inbreeding, so my question is, aren't there very few retards in relation to the amount of inbreeding, if there were just 6 people starting to re-populate earth 4500 years ago?
Inbreeding may result in a far higher phenotypic expression of deleterious recessive genes within a population than would normally be expected. As a result, first-generation inbred individuals are more likely to show physical and health defects, including:
Reduced fertility both in litter size and sperm viability
Increased genetic disorders
Fluctuating facial asymmetry
Lower birth rate
Higher infant mortality
Slower growth rate
Smaller adult size
Loss of immune system function
I am not one to argue with the assumptions of how many children the first generations of Noah's decendants had, but I think (and I may of course be completely wrong here, but facts about inbreeding supports) the inbreeding would greatly severe the chances of having that many healthy children.
Do you have a comforting reply for a curious and possible christian in the making?
Probably the best starting point is Chapter 8, Creation Answers Book (I recommend the whole book). The most pertinent part is “First, the biological issue” (heading) and following. The word “inbreeding” is not used, but the concepts are covered. Summary: Inbreeding depression is only a problem when there are shared genetic defects.
Also, check out the research of geneticist Dr John Sanford. For anyone with knowledge of biology/genetics, I strongly recommend his book (see the article), which goes into much detail about how genomes are inexorably deteriorating. Of course this points back to less damage in the past, which is consistent with the biblical history, including that Adam and Eve would have had perfect genomes, fresh from the work of the Creator. The longevity of Noah and his sons indicates that this genetic deterioration (following the Fall in Genesis 3) had not progressed far at this time.
Furthermore, only first-cousin marriages were initially necessary after the Flood, which even today are practised in many parts of the world without frequent major problems.
brenda P., United States, 3 June 2012
We Texans DO have a number for 10 to the 43rd power--it's one bazzillion!
Just kidding. I just discovered your site today, and am finding it very informative. On our drives to/from college in the late '70s, my sister and I frequently discussed Moses and Genesis versus what we were taught in school (I took several Geology classes and majored in Math). As my favorite Geology professor said, "I know God created it--I'd just like to know how He did it." He never taught geologic THEORIES as FACTS. Things have changed a lot since then, even in Texas! I always said that IF there was a "Big Bang", it was God snapping his fingers to begin the creation of everything we see and know. It's great to find a site with so much scientific information to refute many of the long-perceived FACTS put forth by evolutionists and atheists. You address topics that I had not considered before (like where all the people went--I'm certainly familiar with exponential growth, so should have thought of that one before now).
M. F., United States, 28 August 2012
I am an amateur creationist. It fascinates me to think that God may have miraculously created us so recently, as described in the bible. It seems to me that a common sense and "easy to understand" creationist argument would be the dramatic increase in world population, and the dramatic increase in technology over the past 10,000 years or so. Evolutionists claim that humans evolved from an amoeba to Einstein in 3.7 billion years. (That would be six miles on a time scale). Evolutionists claim that in the last 10,000 years (one inch on a time scale), human population has gone from 1 million people to 7 billion people, and humans have evolved from using stone tools to being able to create super computers that can fit into your pocket. It's too much of a coincidence that so much has happened so recently. Look at everything that has happened in the last "one inch" of history.
Anthony D., United States, 10 October 2012
What about the population during Old Testament times? The 6 surviving child-bearing people after the flood started reproducing around 2,500 BCE and the Exodus from Egypt was around 1,450 BCE right? At .75% growth rate this would have meant only 10,000-11,000 on the entire planet during the exodus. And doesn't the Bible say Moses led 600,000 men out of Egypt (plus the women and children)? In order to reach the population of many millions in the 1,000 years would have required a much, much higher rate of growth. Also, the tower of Babel was built only 100 years after the flood wasn't it? Even at a whopping 5% growth rate, less than 800 people would have existed on the planet at that time, and most of them would have been children. It seems highly unlikely that a couple hundred adults could have built a tower so large that it threatened the heavens. Sodom and Gamorrah were destroyed a mere 700 years after the flood. I don't know if anyone has an idea on the populations of these cities, but again, even given an unreasonable rate of growth, this event alone would have been devastating to the world population at this early time. Even today when the world population is growing faster than ever known, the rate is only 1.7%. So the population during the Bronze Age just doesn't add up by any calculation that I can see.
The article clearly states, "Of course, population growth has not been constant. ... Hence, just four generations after the Flood would see a total population of over 3,000 people (remembering that the longevity of people was such that Noah, Shem, Ham, Japheth, etc., were still alive at that time). This represents a population growth rate of 3.7% per year".
Your question about Babel was answered in response to the first comment (Justin S., United States, 27 January 2012), but was also covered in endnote #8.
All this was in the two paragraphs immediately preceeding the point in the text where you found the 0.75% figure, but even the sentence with the 0.75% figure ends with re-stating the point that this calculated average figure for the 2500 years from the Flood to the earthly time of Christ was "much less than the documented population growth rate in the years following the Flood."
You say that "the world population is growing faster today than ever known", but you are probably confusing absolute growth (millions per year) with the growth rate, which is something quite different. This was also explained in the article (third paragraph).
BTW, population growth is based on the total population, not the breeding population, so the correct starting figure to use following the Flood is 8, not 6.
As for the very concept of a 'bronze age', see: The Stone 'Age'—a figment of the imagination?
Anthony D., United States, 10 October 2012
As a follow-up to my earlier question. Wasn't there only about 300-400 years from the time of Jacob to the Exodus? For the Isralites to have grown to the size of 600,000 men alone in that time descended only from Jacob would have required an outrageous growth rate. Especially under slavery conditions. Or am I missing something here?
This seems rather tangential to the article.
Actually, according to Ussher's chronology, it was 215 years from Jacob's family entering Egypt to the Exodus. But was the required population growth rate needed "outrageous"? Note that when Jacob's family entered Egypt, Joseph was in charge in Egypt and he said to his visiting brothers, "take your father and your households, and come to me, and I will give you the best of the land of Egypt, and you shall eat the fat of the land." (Genesis 45:18) My emphasis. And when they came, Joseph said, "Settle your father and your brothers in the best of the land." (Genesis 47:6)
How many came to Eygpt? "All the persons of the house of Jacob who came into Egypt were seventy." (Genesis 46:27).
Genesis 47:27 says, "Thus Israel settled in the land of Egypt, in the land of Goshen. And they gained possessions in it, and were fruitful and multiplied greatly."
It was not until late in the sojourn in Egypt that oppression came upon the people of Israel, because the Egyptians became concerned at the way in which the Jews had prospered and grown so much in number (Exodus 1:8ff). But even with the oppression, the Bible records, "But the more they were oppressed, the more they multiplied and the more they spread abroad. And the Egyptians were in dread of the people of Israel." (Exodus 1:12)
Even when Pharaoh ordered the midwives to kill the Jewish sons (and they didn't), the midwives explained to Pharaoh their failure to do so, "Because the Hebrew women are not like the Egyptian women, for they are vigorous and give birth before the midwife comes to them." (Exodus 1:19) Verse 20 says, "So God dealt well with the midwives. And the people multiplied and grew very strong." So the Bible is clear that God was prospering the people of Israel in Egypt, even while they were being oppressed.
So what population growth rate would be needed in this 'mere' 215 years to get about 2.5 million people (the usual figure cited, allowing for women and children)? It is 5.0% (70x1.05215=2.5 million). According to the 'rule of 72' this is a doubling every 14 years. This is not "outrageous" at all. As the article says, natural population growth rates (excluding immigration) exceeded 4% in various places in the 19th century (before modern medicine).
I might also point out that the fact that Joseph could give the Israelites an area of the best land in Egypt when they arrived ~1706 BC is also consistent with the re-population of Egypt after the Flood. If the secular time-frame were true, there would hardly be any such land available after many thousands of years of population growth.
Jay B., United States, 5 November 2012
I have seen this argument multiple times before and find great error in the logic. You make the claim that if humans had been around for a million years then the population would be E^43. While disease, famine and war may reduce populations they are not they primary reason for populations remaining stagnant. Carrying capacity is a fundamental concept to population biology, and it is completely ignored in this argument. By the same argument you could say bacteria would cover the entire planet in a few weeks or mosquitos in a few years, and they don't even have wars. Once a population reaches carrying capacity, they can grow no more. They simply don't have enough resources to do so. Humans are not exempt either, and populations would have been limited by their local geography, climate, and food production abilities. Modern medicine did contribute to the recent population explosion, but not as much as improved food production and mass agriculture which does reach third world countries. Because of these new innovations the global carrying capacity has drastically increased. Thus I find this argument to be invalid.
Oh please! I have used the reductio ad absurdum here to show that the evolutionary premises are absurd (even ridiculously low population growth rates over such huge periods of time are a problem for the evolutionary scenario). I never for a moment would suggest that there could ever be 10^43 people; that's the very point!
Note what I wrote, "Those who adhere to the evolutionary story argue that disease, famine and war kept the numbers almost constant for most of this period, which means that mankind was on the brink of extinction for most of this supposed history.[ ref. 10] This stretches credulity to the limits." "Famine" covers your point about 'carrying capacity'. Also, I pointed out the extremely low population density of people on much of the earth, such that the carrying capacity has not been stretched over nearly all of man's history, even without modern agriculture. Your point was not ignored.
Furthermore, modern mechanized agriculture is even yet to impact some 'third world' countries (e.g. in Africa).
And it seems that once again there is confusion over population growth in modern times (millions per year) versus growth rate, for which there is no evidence that modern agriculture or medicine has had much to do with it, as explained in the article.
So I find your objections to be invalid.
Andrew H., Australia, 30 December 2012
Absolutely loved this article thank you so much. This evidence on its own is compelling but when you combine it with others such as erosion rates of the earth it is astounding! Imagine how little standing room there would be if you calculated the erosion rates into it also (obviously not necessary though). Thanks again!
Jennifer P., Australia, 8 January 2013
This is such an excellent article. It seems well near impossible to get this message and information out into the secular atheistic domain.The mathematics are so easy to grasp in this baby hating world we all live in today. All the alarmist horror stories of so called overpopulation and the nonsense of a little baby carbon footprint !
The real history and length of settlement of Aboriginal people should be known to all Australians. It was certainly liberating to the aboriginal students I have taught over 30 years in Darwin and Cairns ! They realised how they fitted into the big picture historically, that we are all related back to Noah and his family and all one blood ( back to the original parents of us all Adam and Eve, the ' mother of all living ' as the Bible clearly teaches ) regardless of superficial outer skin colour. It would do great good to counterbalance the evil racist propaganda of evolution and ape like human origins.
Kathleen B., Australia, 8 January 2013
This website is awesome! Another great article. Clear, precise, well constructed information. You have a lot of patience in answering your detractors even when they don't follow the very reasonable rules.
Roger T., Australia, 9 January 2013
Thankyou Don for a clear explanation of the world's population growth to the present day.
When you read facts and figures about population growth one has to wonder what happened to basic logic of those who persist with long age theories.
Surely at the back of their minds a still small voice must be saying, "Hey, this doesn't make sense!"
I invite any doubters who may read this comment to look up Romans 1:18-23. I think verse 22 says it all. "Professing to be wise, they became fools,..."
Once the existence of a Creator is denied there is nowhere to go except to make up implausible reasons to try to fill in the gaps. As the gaps become wider the more implausible the solution until finally one drowns in a sea of doubt and despair because you have denied the reason for your existence.
Blessings,
Roger.
Michael F., United States, 9 January 2013
I am curious, did The flood happen before or after Neanderthals, or the Young Earth estimated date of neanderthal fossils? Also, what group of people is it believed that Adam most resemble? Like did he look African, Asian, Middle Eastern, Nordic, Aborigine...?
As almost any of our articles on Neandertals say, they were post-Flood variants of the human kind (e.g. Neandertals: the changing picture).
We also consistently depict Adam not as typically ''European', 'Asian' or 'African'. He would have had features of various people groups or 'blends' thereof. His skin colour would likely have been moderately 'black'. Genetics studies could well assist in working out what Adam was like, but we can only infer such things when we only have present-day data to go on.
Jeff M., United Kingdom, 9 January 2013
Dear Don
I understand what you are driving at. It would help even more if you could say, from CMI research, what the population of the earth was at the end of each of the (say) 25 centuries from the flood to the resurrction of Christ when, as you say, it was 300 million.
Also how were they distributed across the globe?
many thanks
Jeff
Such detail is not possible and the article clearly takes a 'broad brush' approach where such detail is not necessary to make the point that the current world population is consistent with the biblical time frame, using very conservative assumptions.
Alan H., United Kingdom, 9 January 2013
You certainly hit the nail on the head when you said the exponential function is not taught properly. If it was, so much 'learned wisdom' would be exposed as nonsense before your eyes as you so ably demonstrated. One thing I found very helpful in working out the doubling time was to divide 70 by the yearly growth rate in %. So the doubling time at 2% per year, is 70 divided by 2 and equal to around 35 years. In your article the growth rate of 0.28% has a doubling time of 70/0.28 equal to 250 years. So in 3500 years there are 14 doubling times. Starting at 20 that gives your approx 300,000 people after 3,500 years. Also plugging in doubling times to other areas apart from population you will see the errant nonsense spoken by 'learned' bodies in all manner of areas. What you will find is that exponents are very inconvenient, which is why they are taught so badly along with many other things.
Don S., United States, 9 January 2013
Don, Thanks for the article. I think the best articles are the ones that pose a serious question like yours. This forces the reader to answer the question, as opposed to just rebutting a claim. You have generated many responses here, because your question bothers those evolutionists. Keep up the good "bothering"!
Anton L., South Africa, 10 January 2013
Brilliant.
Jeff D., United States, 12 January 2013
One the fascinating subjects that I have just barely skimmed is that of the Epigenome Project and its results to twins.
The apparent conclusion from the study is that the DNA of twins is more markedly affected when separated meaning that outside influences can change the DNA.
It is still essentially human DNA but with catastrophic changes in this world's environment is easy to see how we can go from living in Eternity (in God's Likeness) to 900+ years after the Fall to 400 years just after the Flood, down to 200 years by Abraham and now a mere 75 years with those living to 90 being rare and not entirely explained how.
So if Environmental Changes affect your DNA to create such radical departures from God's original intent, what would those Changes be?
The Fall or the Sin of Adam- Death entered the world "as by one man sin entered into the world, and death by sin...." men live for hundreds of years because the world climate allows for an ideal growth environment.
The Flood- radically altered the world, allowing in more harmful radiation from the sun, more drastic changes in regional climates. Abraham's grandsire was 200+ years old, Abraham died after 175 (and Sarai was desirable by Abimelech sometime after turning 65.)
So in response to questions about genetic mutations and chromosomal deficiencies, I tend to think that closer you are to Creation the less likely you are to see major chromosomal deficiencies, the more likely you are to see sustained life spans.
See Living for 900 years.
ROY T., Jamaica, 14 January 2013
The article: "Where are all the people," should be a "must read" for every evolutionist with an open mind. It is fantastic! We need more people who think outside of the box....men who would take their stand on the side of reason.....men who prefer to believe God, the Eternal, rather than man, the temporal...as far as earth is concerned.
David B., Canada, 17 January 2013
This has to be my all time favorite article at CMI. I use it often and if I were to have only one article to show people at this website, this would be the one.
I appreciate the appreciation, but I would be wary of the 'knock-out punch syndrome'.
bill L., Australia, 18 January 2013
i find it hard to come to grips with the idea that we have descended from an incestuous coupling of very close relatives. does this mean that our total gene pool comes from the genes of a total of 7 people and with no good mutations improving what we started with then by now we should have degenerated into chaos
thank you bill
See: Adam, Eve and Noah vs Modern Genetics and the 'Related articles' listed in this article.
Kenneth B., United States, 29 January 2013
according to pastor Tony E, Adam was made from the ground which is mostly Brown, Red, Black, etc. Eve was made from His Rib (white), their children looked mostly Hebrew.
Very interesting article, I Loved it...
The pastor's idea is very simplistic, if he means it to be taken as a scientific explanation and not just a poetic statement. Our skin colour comes from a organic pigments manufactured by biochemical processes in our bodies. The main pigment is called melanin and it has no chemical relationship to the causes of the colour in soil or ribs.
However, the pastor's conclusion is probably near the mark; the first people would not have been 'white' or 'black' but somewhere in between.
Mark D., Australia, 11 February 2013
This is constructing a population model to fit what you think the bible says about history. Population growth follows an approx. exponential curve when there are sufficient resources to support it. Populations will oscillate about a stable equilibrium value after they have grown to a certain point. The rapid growth of population in the last 150-200 years is thought to be a result of the huge advances in agricultural technology. Extrapolating this growth into the past is unjustified
Using the estimations the creationists give (.5% and 4,500 years) numbers that don't quite work with history are obtained.
Example: The exodus. Now I think Exodus is complete mythology but if you use the figures above you get a population number that contradicts your model and reality. The exodus is estimated to have happened in 1440 BCE, 1060 years after the supposed flood is estimated to have happened. 8*(1+.005)^1060=1,582. Exodus says that there was six hundred thousand adult men, assuming the population was 50/50 (male to female ratio) thats a million people not counting children. Or is this a special case?
Creationist models always fall apart under the scientific lens. That's why no scientist worth his salt takes them seriously.
It seems like Mark D. has not read the article very carefully, but picked up the 0.5% figure and decided to run with that and ignore all else - not a very 'scientific' approach!
The article emphasises in several ways that population growth has not been constant. See, for example the section hearded "What growth rate is needed to get six billion people since the Flood?"
The growth rate immediately after the Flood, for example, was 3.7%. We don't know the growth rate for the whole 1060 years after the Flood, but a mere 1.5% would give a world population (not just Israel) of 57 million. Of course with little competiton for space and resources this sort of growth would be expected (or more). So getting 600,000 Isralites in Egypt is 'no problem'. But the Exodus population would have been more than that, including children, which is discussed in detail above in one of the responses to a comment, so Mark did not read the comments either, it appears.
Mark charges: "Creationist models always fall apart under the scientific lens. That's why no scientist worth his salt takes them seriously."
No scientist worth his salt would react in such a half-baked way to an article without actually carefully considering all the arguments put. But we are not talking science here anyway, but history and mathematics. See; It's not science! There are also plenty of scientists who accept the biblical account of creation, flood, etc.: Creationist scientists and the founders of modern science were biblical creationists.
There is also plenty of evidence for the Exodus, if you look in the right time-frame. What has been happening in archaeology is akin to looking for evidence for the American Civil War in the 1300s; 'look, there is no evidence that the Civil War ever happened!' See, for example: The Times of the Judges—The Archaeology: (a) Exodus to Conquest and (just a little bit of corroborating evidence): The walls of Jericho.
Justin S., United States, 27 January 2012
In the article “Where are all the people?” population growth is extrapolated backward to show how today’s world could be populated by the few people on the ark.
What is the estimated population at the time of the Tower of Babel? If the time period is only about 102 years then a rate of about 5% would seem to get us to about a thousand people. This hardly seems to be a “city”.
Is it reasonable to consider a higher (or even much higher) growth rate, a different definition of “city” than our common usage, or to read the text as being a statement of the founding what would become a city?