Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

Life is unique after all: Copernicus, Enrico Fermi, and Elon Musk weigh in

by

Published: 10 July 2018 (GMT+10)

Where are the aliens? Are we alone in the universe after all? The prevailing academic worldview is based around the secular humanistic, materialist premise that natural causes explain everything, and the universe is devoid of any over-arching meaning, purpose or design. Since life is asserted to have evolved here on Earth through unguided natural processes, it would seem to follow that we should expect to find it elsewhere in the universe also (because the alternative would imply that Earth and humanity are somehow special and unique, which is antithetical to the secularist worldview).

In cosmology, this secular viewpoint that humans are not special in the universe has been named the Copernican Principle, though the man himself would certainly not have agreed with its modern formulation. We are assumed to have a randomly-selected vantage point on the rest of the universe which does not reflect any privileged view.1

The Fermi Paradox, on the other hand, is an application of the Copernican Principle to the realm of ‘astrobiology’ (which is defined as the search for, specifically, ‘the evolution of life’ in the universe). Since we are assumed to be in a non-special location, and since we are assuming that evolution must be sufficiently probable to have occurred here on Earth, the question arises: where is everybody else?2 Modern academia is loath to admit to anything that would imply that evolution is improbable, because this inevitably points in the direction of purpose and design! But Enrico Fermi, an early pioneer of atomic energy, looked at some basic variables using the assumed evolutionary history of the universe, and concluded that our universe should be literally teeming with intelligent life by now.3 It is called a paradox because we observe the exact opposite: a total lack of any sign of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe.

New, ‘disappointing’ calculations

A team of researchers from the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University recently evaluated this so-called paradox using more realistic assumptions, however. What they concluded was a major shocker to many in the secular world: there is no paradox! They write:

“When the model is recast to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a substantial ex ante [predicted] probability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe, and thus that there should be little surprise when we fail to detect any signs of it.” 4

One of the most crucial variables in any discussion of life in the universe would be the original formation of life from non-living matter, called abiogenesis. Naturally, the paper stays far away from ever questioning the validity of abiogenesis in the first place, taking it as a given that life forms spontaneously from non-life in direct violation of the established Law of Biogenesis.

The authors make reference to the ‘RNA world’ hypothesis, saying, “There is substantial evidence that a so-called ‘RNA world’, in which both genetic and metabolic roles were filled by RNA, preceded the current genetic system of DNA, RNA, and ribosomally translated proteins.” However, there are many immense scientific problems with that speculation, and objections by biologists to this idea have never been sufficiently answered.5 In fact, the article they cited, written by Harold Bernhardt of the University of Otago in New Zealand, is actually titled, “The RNA world hypothesis: the worst theory of the early evolution of life (except for all the others)”!6 You know things are desperate when even the proponents of a theory are bashing it, and I don’t think that Bernhardt’s carefully-guarded speculations could reasonably be taken as “substantial evidence” of the RNA-world hypothesis. There is one ‘theory’ that Bernhardt is unwilling to entertain: God created life fully-functional from the outset! In reality, philosophical assumptions and prior beliefs guide much of what is called ‘science’ in the world today, something that on rare occasions even the scientists themselves will admit.7

DNA
No one knows how the remarkable structure of DNA could originate by naturalistic processes from non-living matter.

Uneducated guesses

The authors admit that there is too much uncertainty to pinpoint an actual probability for abiogenesis in their equations, so they charitably chose an extremely high figure of one ‘abiogenesis event’ per planet. Even so, they concluded:

“When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively). ’Where are they?’—probably extremely far away, and quite possibly beyond the cosmological horizon and forever unreachable.”8

Popular culture, including the realm of ‘popular science’ has gravitated recently towards greater and greater enthusiasm for the idea of alien life, including directed panspermia—the idea that aliens ‘seeded’ life on earth. Besides making for very eye-catching (and therefore profitable) headlines in science periodicals, the idea helps resolve the ‘problem’ of the overwhelming appearance of design in life.9 Since this is the case, papers such as this one are going to be very unwelcome news indeed. This is likely why popular science writers were quick to downplay their conclusions and reassure the audience that we can all still safely believe in ETs:

“In the end, the team’s conclusions do not mean that humanity is alone in the Universe, or that the odds of finding evidence of extra-terrestrial civilizations (both past and present) is unlikely [sic]. Instead, it simply means that we can say with greater confidence – based on what we know – that humanity is most likely the only intelligent species in the Milky Way Galaxy at present.”10

Even so, the comment section of that particular news article is abuzz with people livid about the prospect that we may be alone, with comments such as, “Totally ridiculous, and, quite frankly, an embarrassing perspective. Oh, because [we] can’t see or hear or detect any form of intelligent life out there, there must be none??”11 Belief in ETs has become a fast-growing religious faith that need not depend on any actual facts whatsoever, apparently.

Space colonies: being alone is as good an excuse as not being alone

Elon-Musk
Elon Musk

Elon Musk, famous billionaire CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, responded differently, saying:

“It is unknown whether we are the only civilization currently alive in the observable universe, but any chance that we are is added impetus for extending life beyond Earth … we must preserve the light of consciousness by becoming a spacefaring civilization & extending life to other planets.”12

Being the head of a private company dedicated to space exploration, it is obviously in his interests to make such statements, but nonetheless they reveal the consequences of an atheistic outlook. Without God’s guiding hand over history, who is to say that an asteroid might not hit Earth at any moment, destroying all life? Musk feels his efforts might be the key to one day saving the “light of consciousness”—something which, by the way, is totally inexplicable from a materialist worldview. What Musk seems to be naively unaware of, however, is that due to the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics (entropy), no amount of human effort will ever be able to ultimately stave off the effects of the winding down of our universe. We can run, but we cannot hide. Only the Creator—God Himself—can save us from the effects of the Curse on His creation!

Despite some claims that views about extraterrestrial life are tangential to the creation issue, such beliefs are underpinned and motivated by a belief in cosmic and biological evolution. CMI has been a pioneer among Christian ministries in highlighting the evolution connection to beliefs in alien life. One can visit the Alien/UFOs qa section of our site to access a huge range of articles. Also note the related resources at the bottom of the page, and particularly CMI’s major motion picture that aired in cinemas around the world. It included a beautiful special effects treatise on the Fermi Paradox. The DVD and Blu-ray are now available.

References and notes

  1. Peacock, J., Cosmological Physics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1998, p. 66. Return to text.
  2. Bates, G., The Fermi Paradox, Creation 38(4):53-55, 2016 Return to text.
  3. See Ref. 2. Return to text.
  4. Sandberg, A., Drexler, E. and Ord, T., Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, arxiv.org, 8 June 2018. Return to text.
  5. Mills, G. and Kenyon, D., The RNA World: A Critique, Origins and Design 17(1):9-16, 1996. Return to text.
  6. Bernhardt, H., The RNA world hypothesis: the worst theory of the early evolution of life (except for all the others), Biology direct, 7(1):1, 2012. Return to text.
  7. For one example, Cosmologist George Ellis is quoted as saying that scientific models are either accepted or excluded often on philosophical grounds; see: Gibbs, W., Thinking Globally, Acting Universally (Profile: George F.R. Ellis), Scientific American 273(4):55, October 1995. Return to text.
  8. See Ref. 4. Return to text.
  9. When the issue was pressed to famous atheistic ‘evangelist’ Richard Dawkins in Ben Stein’s documentary Expelled, Dawkins admitted he would have no problem with the idea that aliens designed life on earth, showing that design is only a problem for the scientific community as long as God is the designer. Return to text.
  10. Williams, M., New Model Predicts That We’re Probably The Only Advanced Civilization In The Observable Universe, universetoday.com, 21 June 2018. Return to text.
  11. See ref. 9; Comment by user DALLASGOON. Return to text.
  12. Mosher, D., Elon Musk says a new study about aliens gives humans even more reason to colonize other planets, businessinsider.com, 26 June 2018. Return to text.

Readers’ comments

Arthur G.
I read the paper by Sandberg, A., Drexler, E. and Ord, T., entiltled "Dissolving the Fermi Paradox," I was impressed by the approach and the mathematical analysis of the Drake equation, which they used as the exemplar of the estimates of other life and civilisations in the universe. By inserting statistical values much more realistic than earlier more hopeful values, which were based on the a priori assumption that life does in actual fact exist elsewhere in the universe, the probability is extremely high that we are in actual fact alone. They were very good in not assuming the answer prior to the completion of the analysis, and for this they deserve great credit.
However, their conclusions fly in the face of the evolutionary presupposition that "if life evolved here, it must have evolved elsewhere, given the vast number of stars and planets in the universe." Consequently, I believe that this paper will not have long to pose this controversial conclusion in the public and scientific arena. It will be quietly buried and forgotten, if not discredited. Evolutionists, are past masters at suppressing research that contradicts their worldview. We must remember that the theory of evolution is not science proper and has no explanatory power. It is only a philosophical proposition that attempts to explain life without God. All evidence from the natural world is filtered through that single idea. This paper is a welcome challenge to that idea.
WR B.
Albert L. Lehninger in the postscript to his famous blue bound Principles of Biochemistry college textbook in the 1970 edition made a statement similar to this, “the probability that life could arise spontaneously is so infinitesimally small, but we observe that it did, therefore it must have arisen an infinite number of times and we have yet to find it.” That a man of such abilities should make an illogical statement of this magnitude was my first clue that divine revelation is necessary to know God.
Noah D.
Its frustrating to me to see so many people deceived into thinking (macro)evolution and long ages is "fact". I so so wish the evidence against these, and for an intelligent designer, and for flood geology would be disseminated to the public. Ignorance is destroying lives of young people growing up with this false paradigm. We have a creator that loves us and this "true" paradigm can help so many hurting people (and humble the proud stumbling blocks).
Rebecca P.
People have already made a mess in this planet. I don't think they should do the same on others.
I know that their are no space aliens. Hallucinations, hypnotic or drug caused dreams, hoaxes, misunderstanding of natural or man made objects or deception by demons may be the source of alleged sightings. If there were aliens it wouldn't threaten my faith, but I think obsession with aliens is dangerous. If aliens brought life, where did the aliens come from?
Paul Price
Thanks for your comment. Check here for our theological position on ETs.



Aiden B.
Outstanding article! But can evolutionists take the “bio" out of astrobiology? There is no scientific evidence to suggest intelligent alien life exist in the universe. The incredible effort in the search for alien life exposes how badly they want to say “See, life evolved, no need for a Creator, we're not special in the universe!" But regardless of their perspective, all are sinners and are in need of a Savior and thankfully he has revealed himself not only on earth as one of us but also in his word with the promise of everlasting life who all believe on him.
Cameron N.
Great Article. These findings are consistent with the Biblical formation of creation as laid out in Genesis. If we take this information into account, we see that God created man as the ultimate/pinnacle of His creation in His image, which includes agency and intelligence. This concept alone dismisses intelligent ET's in the Biblical account of Creation. But, God also gave Adam a mandate to have dominion over the world He created and to name the creatures of the Earth. Seeing as men were not made to fly, or survive in the vacuum of space, I think its safe to say that there is no low tier animal life in space as well. So no living Nephesh Chayyah creatures would exist anywhere outside of Earth from a Biblical standpoint. Bacteria or dormant frozen viruses maybe, but nothing Nephesh for sure.

Concerning Elon, I think it is foolhardy to try to colonize other worlds because you would be depleting Earth's good limited natural resources to try to sustain a planet or people who are foolish enough to live somewhere that is uninhabitable. Beyond just that, what if a crises occurs in the colony? How will Home world get there in time or provide sufficient quick avenues to save them? If expansion is an issue, then we have plenty of space on the wide open Oceans that we should figure out how to make habitable. If defense from asteroids or comets are an issue, then we should focus on building planet wide defenses against these things. I believe we should be doing the inverse of what Musk suggests and start harvesting useful materials and elements from other planets to bolster our resources and growth here on Earth.
Phillip G.
I have always found it a little sad that the so called intelligent life on this planet operates, for the most part, so unintelligently in this area, when the One True Intelligent Life stands waiting for us to respond to the magnificent intervention performed by His Son.
Stuart A.
This Planet is about 6,000 years old and the aliens are demonic angels led by satan.
John C.
The "Panspermia" concept was strongly advocated by two Nobel laureates, Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinge, They acknowledged that they advocated the theory because the probability of life originating elsewhere than on Earth was so infinitesimally small as to be essentially impossible. Their alternative explanation posited that some primitive life form(s) from our planet somehow could have made it out of our solar system and colonized some distant planet. They had nothing to say about how any form of life could have survived such a journey though cold, anoxic outer space and the great heat of re-entry to the destination planet.
Steven B.
Come back to me, when you have actually looked at the evidence in our recent era for the UFO phenomenon and extraterrestrial biological entities. Until you have examined all of the following, you will continue to sound like a noisy gong or a clanging symbol to anyone who knows better. Read Col. Philip J Corso's 1996 book, The Day after Roswell. Col. Corso risked jail and worse for revealing the secrets he did, before his death. He was a close confidant of Harry S Truman, and reported directly to General Twinings at the Pentagon. Watch the entire video testimonial series and presentation, the Disclosure Project, as presented at the National Press Club 2001. Over 400 former government employees, possessing top-secret and above security clearances, came forth under the whistleblower's law asking to testify in front of the U.S. Senate. They risked serious jail time by speaking out, yet were ignored by mainline media and the U.S. Senate. Watch the entire slide presentation and lecture presented by late astrophysicist, Dr. Tom Van Flandern and the Meta-Research Group at the National Press Club in Washington DC 2003. These involved analysis of the NASA photos of the Mars flyovers, and can be viewed on YouTube or Van Flandern's website. Watch recent presentations by the Hon. Paul Hellyer, former Canadian Minister of Defense, regarding the secret space program and reality of IBE's (enter terrestrial biological entities).

Interview Capt. John Lear of Phoenix, Arizona, owner of at least five aeronautical world speed records, spokesman and presenter of many moon photos, revealing much of what NASA has hidden from us in the past

Interview Dr. Steven Greer, organizer of the disclosure project.

Interview Hon. Paul Hellyer, former Canadian Minister of Defense. Then, rewrite.
Gary Bates
You demand we come back to you when we have looked at the topics you mention, but it's rather presumptuous of you to presume we have not done our research. You have obviously not done your research on us. For example, just type Paul Hellyer or Steven Greer into our search engine and you will see articles on both. Are you even aware that we have just released a major motion picture that appeared in over 800 theaters worldwide called Alien Intrusion: Unmasking a deception? This is based upon an Amazon top 50 best selling book of the same name (follow the links). Whilst it is true that millions have seen things and many have claimed alien abduction encounters. Here are some facts revealed in the movie which featured an equal number of both secular and Christian researchers.:


  • When it came to the abduction phenomenon all the experts interviewed were, or once were secular researchers who did not possess a Christian worldview. They included Harvard psychiatrist Dr John Mack, Budd Hopkins (the most renowned abduction researcher of all time), Dr David Jacobs, John Keel, Norio Hayakawa, and Nick Redfern from the History Channel who’s written over 40 books. And they all agreed, among other things, that we were dealing with something interdimensional and spiritual; that it was deceptive; and that people are harmed by the phenomenon.

  • Christians and non-Christians pretty much agree about the ‘nature’ of the phenomenon and that it is not extraterrestrial in nature.

  • The government also recognizes this, and also NHEs (non-human entities) and some said it was demonic as did John Keel.

  • That basically no one who seriously researches it believes these are real aliens visiting us in real physical spaceships.

  • There are over 400 cases where the experiences have stopped in the name of Jesus which demonstrates the spiritual nature of the phenomenon.

  • The movie was about as evidenced-based as it could be and based upon real research and not based upon listening to ET wannabees like Hellyer and Greer who clearly approach the phenomenon with their New Age desire that all sighting and experiences are ET in nature.

  • The fact that you might not like the solid conclusions of researchers might be an ‘inconvenient truth’ for you, but this is actually what all the serious researchers (not armchair observers) have concluded

  • And note that in the article you commented on, it was concluded by scientific researchers with, no ET or UFO agenda, that it is unlikely that any ET life exists. It would appear that the ET hypothesis strikes out on a number of fronts.



After the movie we received this comment from a senior MUFON Board member the morning after the screening.

“As a retired multi state (7) MUFON Director and interim Board member and the face of MUFON IN UFOs over Earth and Hangar 1, I’m sure I’m the highest level Ufologist to endorse your Alien Intrusion movie. For the past three years, I have been very vocal that the alien abduction is a demonic possession. I had my own malevolent experience-encounter in 2015 that I repelled through the name of Jesus Christ. I feel vindicated that your movie goes hand in hand with the last two books I published on the subject of aliens and demons.”

I encourage you to take a wider and more honest look at the data and what it actually reveals. The book and movie are a good place to start, and we also have a whole section in our QA area on aliens/UFOs. And if you are also a professing Christian then your interpretation should be limited by what the Bible has to say, or what it does not say, on the matter. So please also read Did God Create Life on Other Planets? and also Does denying the existence of alien life ‘limit God’?
Peter M.
“For I am persuaded, that neither death, nor life, nor angels, nor principalities, nor powers, nor things present, nor things to come, Nor height, nor depth, nor any other creature, shall be able to separate us from the love of God, which is in Christ Jesus our Lord” (Romans 8:38-39).

So even if there are “little green men” out there - they will not be able to separate us from the love of God
Lourens B.
I really enjoyed the article. I occasionally debate the creation versus evolution argument with academics at my university and as a postgraduate student of psychology I am often confronted with the argument based on behaviorism that if it cannot be observed it does not exist, except when we talk about evolution theory of course. My response is usually that if something cannot be observed it simply means that it cannot be observed and not that it does not exist. I find it a good argument to answer any statements that denies the existence of God or the spiritual realm.
Paul Price
We cannot observe God directly, but we can see what has been made (Rom. 1).

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